The IISS Strategic Dossier Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical, Security and Energy Dynamics surveys the geopolitical landscape, defence dynamics and energy prospects of the region that spans Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Turkiye. It assesses the security outlook for the region, considering potential flashpoints for intra- and inter-state conflict and evaluating whether newly developed defence ties could evolve into formal alliances. Energy discoveries made in the region in recent years have spurred states’ ambitions to become energy hubs. The dossier evaluates whether such aspirations could lay the foundations for deeper regional cooperation or, conversely, increase the risk of confrontation.

The dossier includes both thematic and country-specific chapters. In addition to the countries in the area of study, it explores the involvement of seven external powers – China, the European Union, France, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, NATO, Russia and the United States – and assesses where the opportunities and risks for these actors lie.

This volume will be essential for policymakers and business leaders seeking a better understanding of the factors shaping the geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Emile Hokayem is Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He specialises in regional politics, security and conflict analysis in the Middle East, including the national security and defence policies of the Middle Eastern states, the role of armed non-state actors, and the interests and involvement of external actors in the Middle East. Prior to joining IISS, Emile was the political editor and international affairs columnist of The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi, and from 2004 to 2008 was the research fellow for the Middle East at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. Emile is the author of Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (IISS Adelphi Series 2013), and the editor of the IISS Strategic Dossier Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East (2019).